Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties, according to new research from the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, released today, showed moderate declines for two key indicators: the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, and the Expectation Index returned a figure of 46.9, reflecting caution among survey respondents.
Trade value expectations remained relatively steady. The Trade Value Sub-Index stayed near the neutral threshold, with the Current reading at 50.9 and the Expectation reading at 49.1, suggesting unit prices are expected to hold firm. Meanwhile, both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments.
Commenting on the findings, HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang said: “The outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated somewhat, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely on account of ongoing geopolitical developments. In the longer term, however, fundamental demand - especially for electronics and other consumer sectors - remains resilient. Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts.”
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed. The jewellery sector rallied impressively, with its Current reading climbing to 57.1 (up 5.9) and Expectation reading rising to 56.0 (up 1.1). The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 (up 6.1) and Expectation Index increasing by 9.2 points to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and Expectation reading of 45.6.
Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising. The Cost Sub-Index improved significantly, with the Current reading rising 15.2 points to 38.1 and its Expectation reading up by 8.5 points to 41.3, indicating potential sustained relief from cost pressures, despite recent surges in oil and energy prices. The impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East was not factored into this survey as fieldwork was conducted in January and February.
As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e-commerce business. The findings showed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination (24%), followed by the EU27 & UK (17%) and Canada & the US (15%), while the ASEAN bloc (14%) continued to emerge as a promising market. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, said: “Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks. At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability.”
For more details, see the full report at HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 and visit the HKTDC Research website.
