Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County experienced the sharpest reversal in domestic migration of any large county in the United States. According to an analysis by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw a dramatic shift from net inbound migration to net outbound migration in the year following the storm, with far-reaching implications for the region's economy, housing market, and workforce.
The study, which combines Census, IRS, Realtor.com, Zillow, and Bureau of Labor Statistics data, shows that among the 620 U.S. counties with at least 100,000 residents, Buncombe's net domestic migration fell the most relative to its population. In the year before Helene, 1,768 more people moved into the county than moved out. In the year after, 2,056 more people left than arrived, a swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents. The next-largest reversal was in Craighead County, Arkansas, at 12.1. Census estimates released in March showed the shift left Buncombe with 1,810 fewer residents in July 2025 than a year earlier, the county's first annual decline since at least 2000.
The housing market has also shifted significantly. Active home listings in Buncombe County rose from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, an increase of 103 percent, compared with 25 percent nationally, according to Realtor.com data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The median listing spent 78 days on the market, up from 54. Zillow's typical home value in Buncombe County fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, while the national figure rose 1.1 percent. These changes suggest a cooling market that could affect homeowners, real estate agents, and local tax revenues.
The local workforce is also smaller. Buncombe County's civilian labor force stood at 135,287 in July 2026, 5.8 percent lower than in July 2024, according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. The statewide labor force fell 1.2 percent over the same period. Buncombe's unemployment rate, which spiked after the storm, was 3.4 percent in July 2026. A shrinking labor force can hinder economic recovery and strain local businesses.
The broader region continued to grow, though more slowly. Across 23 Helene-declared counties in North Carolina's mountains and foothills, net domestic migration fell 54.5 percent, from 9,183 to 4,180, but remained positive. Henderson County added 1,089 residents. IRS migration data from tax years 2022 and 2023, the most recent available, shows the pattern the storm interrupted. Florida was the leading out-of-state source of new households for Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Madison, and Transylvania counties, with 1,315 households moving in. South Carolina, led by Greenville and Spartanburg counties, was the leading destination for households leaving the area, with 1,111.
The study notes that Census estimates are revised each year and may not fully capture temporary displacement, and that 2026 county labor force figures are preliminary. The next county population estimates, expected in spring 2027, will show whether the migration reversal continued. The full study, including methodology, charts, and downloadable county data, is available on the Dry Ridge Moving website.
