Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX), emphasizing that the company's first quarter 2026 results mark a transition from project buildout toward recurring low-carbon fuel monetization. The quarterly recognition of 45Z tax credits and improving renewable natural gas (RNG) economics are beginning to appear in reported results, signaling a shift from narrative to earnings.
For the first quarter of 2026, Aemetis reported revenue of $54.6 million, a 27% increase year-over-year. Gross profit improved to $2.8 million from a loss of $5.1 million in the prior year period, while adjusted EBITDA improved to negative $1.3 million from negative $10.7 million. A key driver was the recurring quarterly 45Z credit recognition tied to current-period production, with $4.0 million recognized across Dairy RNG and California Ethanol following the full-year 2025 catch-up in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Dairy RNG is emerging as the clearest proof point of recurring cash flow. RNG volumes increased 55% year-over-year to 110,000 MMBtu. Additionally, seven CARB pathways with a negative 380 CI score are expected to materially improve LCFS credit capture as volumes scale. The company's ability to generate low-carbon fuel credits is becoming a tangible contributor to financial performance.
The Keyes Membrane Vapor Recovery (MVR) unit remains the largest near-term EBITDA inflection catalyst. Construction is advancing toward completion in 2026, and the MVR is expected to displace approximately 80% of fossil natural gas use at the Keyes ethanol plant, adding an estimated $32 million of annual cash flow. This project is a critical component of Aemetis' strategy to enhance profitability and reduce carbon intensity.
Stonegate's update underscores that Aemetis is moving beyond the buildout phase and into a period where credit monetization directly impacts financial statements. The combination of rising RNG volumes, expanding LCFS pathways, and the upcoming MVR completion positions the company to generate more consistent and growing cash flows from low-carbon fuel operations.
For more details, the full announcement is available here.
