Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported second-quarter 2026 results that made its operating inflection more visible, as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics drove positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA, despite a timing issue with India's OMC tender. Revenue increased 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, below the consensus estimate of $68.6 million, but normalized EPS of negative $0.11 exceeded the consensus of negative $0.24. Underlying performance was stronger than the revenue variance suggests, as India reflected tender timing, and both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution.
Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a $3.4 million loss in the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, up from negative $5.8 million. The company's dairy RNG segment remains the clearest growth driver, with sales volume increasing 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu and segment gross profit rising to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Seven approved LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 CI are already improving credit economics, while six additional pathways nearing approval and two digesters expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026 provide additional runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance, with mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates approximately $32 million of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. While these operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, the balance sheet remains the primary thesis constraint. The company had $1.0 million of unrestricted cash and $415.9 million of total debt, making refinancing progress important to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.
For more details, see the full announcement at Stonegate Capital Partners.
